May 9 2018

According to David Kynaston’s history of the Bank of England (Till Time’s Last Stand), financial crises of one sort or another seem to occur at roughly 10-year intervals and, usually, in the autumn.  Oh dear!  Let’s hope then all the lessons of the last crisis have been properly learnt.  After all, as a famous financial journalist wrote: ““The great wish on the part of the English people as to currency and banking is to be safe.”  Well, quite – and as true now as when it was written – in 1844 by Walter Bagehot.

My take on the last 30 years or so of financial crises and how the sector is responding can be found here in May’s edition of FS Focus.  (My thanks to John Mongelard of the ICAEW and Chris Evans, the editor, and his team.)

The article can also be found here (on page 32).

Photo by rawpixel on Unsplash

May 3 2018

Another day.  Another IT failure, this time in the NHS where a “computer algorithm failure” meant that for the last 9 years women over 68 were not called for breast cancer screening.  Some may have died as a result.

Eminent cancer specialist, Karel Sikora made the point today that this should have been spotted sooner – “Alarm bells should have rung sooner based on a simple observation of the patients who were coming and going.  The fact that they didn’t is, I think, indicative of a problem – a blind spot – that exists across the health service.”

And what might that blind spot be?  Well, a belief in the infallibility of the technology they were using.  “They are no longer as tuned into what they are seeing or what their instinct and experience might be telling them.”   A blind spot found in many sectors other than the NHS.

And spare a thought for poor old “instinct and experience” not to mention the evidence in front of your eyes.  Too often seen as not possible to measure and, therefore, of no use.

But even that technology titan, Elon Musk, recently acknowledged that the reason for delays with the production of its latest model was an over-reliance on automation (in this case, a naughty flufferbot), adding in a tweet on 13 April: “Humans are underrated.”

Indeed they are.  Any effective assessment of risk should never rely on one source only.  What you see in front of your eyes is as important as what you see on a screen. Technology is part of the answer, never the whole answer.  Experience and judgment also matter.

Photo by 수안 최 on Unsplash